The data suggests that the more economic confidence has plummeted, the more the economy has become an issue in the presidential race. That number is derived from monthly surveys of US adults in which they are asked to rate national economic conditions, with 100 signifying that all respondents “say the economy is excellent or good and that it is getting better” and -100 signifying that they all “say it is poor and getting worse,” according to Gallup. “It’s hard to persuade people that things are better.” Americans think the economy is worse under BidenĪmericans have been stubbornly downbeat about the economy under Biden, with Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index hovering between -20 and -40 for months on a scale of -100 to 100. “The fundamental problem for Biden and the Democrats is that while the rate of inflation is down, it’s not going backwards,” GOP pollster Whit Ayres said. If Biden is to turn his fortunes around, he’ll have to convince the American public that the economy is in fact better than it feels and will continue to improve - and that it’s better than they remember under Trump.

In some ways, this isn’t a surprise: The economy was generally good under Trump, except for the Covid-induced recession under Biden, high inflation has been the biggest economic story.

Recent polls show Trump with an 11- to 20-point edge over Biden on which candidate would better handle the economy. Another February Morning Consult/Bloomberg survey of voters in swing states also found that the economy is the most important issue - and could therefore decide the outcome of the election. Voters have mentioned economic issues (think: inflation, jobs, and more) as their greatest concern since 2022 in a long-running and ongoing Gallup survey. He had no control over the pandemic-rattled economy he inherited, but voters may nevertheless blame him for it, as they have (rightly or wrongly) blamed their presidents for the country’s economic troubles in the past.

Surveys are beginning to capture growing consumer confidence - but for President Joe Biden, the question is whether it’s rising quickly enough for him to avoid being penalized in the 2024 election. Unemployment is low, inflation is significantly down from its 2022 peak ( if sticky and ticking up in the last month), wages are up, the stock market is hitting new all-time highs, and it looks like the Federal Reserve might be able to keep the US out of a recession. American economic pessimism has been bafflingly persistent despite major indicators showing that the economy is actually strong.

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